Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
by Calculated Risk on 8/29/2022 08:22:00 AM
These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. It is interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides. Notes: I’ve added back gasoline supplied to see if there is an impact from higher gasoline prices.
The TSA is providing daily travel numbers.
This data is as of August 28th.
This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red).
The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average.
The 7-day average is down 4.9% from the same day in 2019 (90.9% of 2019). (Dashed line)
Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.
Movie ticket sales were at $109 million last week, down about 41% from the median for the week.
The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).
This data is through August 20th. The occupancy rate was down 2.8% compared to the same week in 2019.
Notes: Y-axis doesn’t start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
Blue is for 2020. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.
As of August 19th, gasoline supplied was down 12.4% compared to the same week in 2019.
Recently gasoline supplied has been running somewhat below 2019 and 2021 levels – and sometimes below 2020.