Market will break out of slump due to peaking inflation, Evercore ISI predicts
The market slump may be in its final innings.
According to Evercore ISI’s Julian Emanuel, stocks should start grinding higher due to peaking inflation.
He cites a positive trend going back to the last time stocks and bonds fell together: 1994.
“The market just sort of digested it, and there was a lot of sideways chop,” the firm’s senior managing director told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Monday. “There was a lot of bearishness.”
It paved the way for an epic market breakout over the next four years.
“At the end of the day, earnings carried the day,” noted Emanuel. “That’s what we see when we think about ’22 and ’23 because we don’t think there’s going to be a recession.”
Emanuel sees the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield ending this year at 3.25%. The yield kicked off the week at 2.85%, touching the highest level since December 2018.
The market bull expects strong consumer spending to buoy the economy.
“Margins on balance haven’t contracted because the pricing power has been there,” said Emanuel.
Yet, Wall Street optimism is at a 30-year low.
Emanuel alludes to the latest AAII Investor Sentiment Survey. In the week ending April 13, bears outnumbered the bulls by about three to one. Emanuel sees the results as a key contrary indicator.
‘It’s a question of can you manage through what’s already in the price from an asset market perspective,” Emanuel said. “As difficult as the external circumstances have been abroad and certainly slowing down in China now, the U.S. consumer is still intact.”
As the Street gets deeper into earnings season, he doubts corporate America will give inflation outlooks.
“You’re not going to hear that from companies. They don’t need to take that risk guidance-wise,” Emanuel said. “We don’t think they’re going to be very, very cautionary because they really haven’t seen the evidence concretely themselves.”
Emanuel has a 4,800 year-end target on the S&P 500, a 9% jump from Monday’s close.